dontelle willis

 Todd Jones goes 4-4  4.10 ERA  29 saves

Fernando Rodney  goes 5-3  4.02 ERA  10 saves

Jason Grilli goes 6-2  4.50 ERA  6 saves

Joel Zumaya goes 3-3  2.80 ERA  15 saves

Three people wiht double digit saves? You can't be serious.

Grilli 6-2? Make that a 5.40 ERA and 2-6 record with 6 blown saves in 6 opps. Then it's reasonable

Its not just 2006, his overall 2005 numbers look good, but once you dive in and actually examine them? 

The more i examine the stats the more you look like a moron.  In 2005  D-train 22-10 2.63 era  .  Well the sox that year didnt have one starter with an era under 4. As a matter of fact only one pitcher on your team had a lower era  ...releiver Mike Timlin,

maybe 2006 is different........nope same thing a better era than anyone on the Red Sox except paplebon.    

2007  was last year  ...he had his bad year.... but dude where is this 3 year regression ??   i see 1 year. Why do people consider his 2006 numbers struggling. bosox said it was because a terrible year!  well see above stats and tell me again!  i would say because it was a dropoff from his career year...but 3.78 isnt bad

but I will continue to argue this point that he will suddenly revert to his '04 form in 2008

I think this is where you are gettin confused bosoxx.  i think you were getting 04 and 05 mixed up. In 04 Dontrelle had a 4.01 which would have been 3rd on your sox rotation.  just behind Pedros 3.90.  I would say most definatley he will be better than he was in 2004!  05 now thats a big stretch but not impossible.

Because we have about 30 years worth of examples of pitchers making the switch from NL to AL (with DH).  Not the 2 or three. 

Pedro, Beckett, schilling all came from the nl and have been elite

in detroit at that big ass park if he can stay focused cause he aint hitting no more he will go 23-5  3.20 era   and win the cy young but if it affects him dont be suprised if he goes 10-16 with a 5.15 era i guess time will tell Your joking right?

Pedro, Beckett, schilling all came from the nl and have been elite

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Pedro came 10 years ago. The NL was a better league then. It's not like now when the gap in offenses is huge. Schilling has only had 1 "elite" year, and it wasn't as good as some of the years he had prior in the NL. Beckett went from a 3.38 in the NL to a 5.01 in the AL. not sure how that confirms your point

Schillings era went up .31 switching leagues

Pedro's went up .99

Beckett's went up 1.64

Well you certainly have me convinced willis is gonna be a good one

Over 25%   of Detroit games were started by pitchers not in their opening day rotation! that is 40+ games started by the likes of Chad Durbin, Jordan Tata, Andrew Miller, Yorman Bazardo, Jair Juirjjens and Zach Miner! It actually kind of amazing that they finished 18th in era considering most of these players weren't even on their opening day roster! Also their 2 key bullpen arms ( Zumaya 28 appearances and Rodney 48) missed about 50% of the season. Gee no wonder why their team ERA was high! Not even to mention that Bonderman pitched much of the second half with a pinched nerve in his elbow only to be shut down when the Tigers fell out of contention ! . It wasn't the opposition, it was the fact that their pitching was decimated by injury! With even a reasonable facsimile of health the Tiger's ERA should drop considerably in 2008. Factor in also that Willis( 3.78 career Era)  takes Maroth's( 5.05 career Era, 10.66 in NL last year!) spot in the rotation, it should get even better.

69 out of 162 games will be played vs the bottum third of MLB offenses in baseball .16 more games vs a Tejada- less Baltimore( 16th in runs 07, possibly Roberts- less too) and Swisher-less Oakland ( 19th in runs in 07) even help more! expect a season more close to 06 than 07 for the Tiger's Era. In case you haven't noticed the trend in MLB is that The NL is fastly approaching the AL in offense.

2006 AL average runs scored per team per game: 4.96

2006 NL  average runs scored: 4.75

2007 AL: 4.90

2007 NL: 4.71

With the influx of young offensive talent in the NL: Pujols, H Ramirez, Holliday, Fielder, Pence, Braun, Howard etc. and the aging of the AL's sluggers the gap should get even smaller. Most teams can't or won't pay a 1-9 lineup like the NYY and Detroit. the AL DH argument is going by the wayside.

 

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Tigers Staff ERA in '07 - 4.68 (and sorry they ranked 18th - BP was ranked 24th sorry for the mix up)

Dontrelle....in the NL.... - 5.17

Is that an improvement?  Am I missing something?  Oh, and the pitcher they gave up for him, Adam Miller, will likely outpitch him in 2008, and definitely in 2009.....

So they in effect weakened thier staff acquiring him.....

 

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Adam Miller is a prospect for the Cleveland Indians first of all. Andrew Miller was the player traded to the Marlins. Andrew Miller was called up from AA last year. He wasn't even supposed to be with Tigers last season, injuries forced him up.He is not MLB ready. He has one pitch that is MLB caliber, the fastball. He cuts and changes speeds with it. He threw it over 90% of the time last year. If he doesn't develop a semblance of a secondary pitch he will not be successful at the MLB level as a starter and definitely not in the NL East with Philly, NYM, and Atlanta( 3 of the top 10 offenses in MLB 07). After Miller had pitched a few games at the MLB level and the a scouting report was out. He was bombed!  You can't throw a fastball every pitch at the MLB level. He also developed a flaw in his mechanics in 07.Andrew Miller has great potential but is a few years off from being a top MLB pitcher if he ever will. Dontelle Willis should easily have better stats than Miller in 08-09. Miller as of right now is a one trick pony! Playing in NL East doesn't bode well for him either!

 

Um, the gap in offense AL vs NL is smaller than it was 10 years ago lol about .2 runs per game the last 2 years!The transition from NL to AL is getting easier! the younger rising offensive stars are in the NL not the AL! The NL may be the better overall league this year especially with Santana, Haren, and Tejada defecting.

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he isnt gonna get more than 15 wins. he probably will get 12 or 13 wins an with an ERA. above 4 or 5

15-7 4.17 ERA

Schillings era went up .31 switching leagues

Pedro's went up .99

Beckett's went up 1.64
My point was they were all still dominate. Yes becketts went way up but did you mention it went back down to 3.27  ...the second lowest of his career...thats down 1.74!   Because of the DH the AL teams score more runs so era's are gonna fluctuate accordingly. But that doesnt mean they aren't as good anymore.  Kevin Millwood switched to the AL and his era went from  4.85 to 2.86.  We can argue this point forever and not get anywhere. Is Dontrelle on the decline at age 26 or was last year just and abberation, a bad year on a losing team with the worst D in MLB. Only time will tell for sure so the debate is moot.

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You still need to add a run to a run and a half to his era

There is a site that did the stats of the last 50 pitchers the number was actually +or -  .13!!Not quite 1.50 but still a little fluctuation..

 Infield defense will be a key and I think Detroits is substandard. Thats not really true i dont think. Guillen has moved to first where he had 1 error in 44 games.  Polanco is a gold glover who made 0 errors. Renteria only made 11 errors last year good for 9th best % among MLB SS.  Now Cabrera yeah...he needs some work at 3rd 23 errors ouch. But the guy has switched from LF and hes 24 years so hopefully he will get better. We can deal with some extra errors since if he hits .325 with 34 hr's again!! 

Edgar Renteria couldnt hack it in the AL. 30...count them...THIRTY errors at SS in bostonYes your right he had an awful year. But was it really because he couldnt hack it in the A.L.  Do they use a different ball in the AL,, smaller gloves maybe?? Why did a guy who's been such a good SS over his career make so many errors. Maybe he was playing through  injuries?? Maybe he just didnt like Boston? Maybe you guys need a new field?  I dont know.   Well you SOX are better off now that you have Lugo !!! He only made 19 errors to go with his 234 Batting average!  11 errors last year for Edgar by the way.

Over 25%   of Detroit games were started by pitchers not in their opening day rotation! that is 40+ games started by the likes of Chad Durbin, Jordan Tata, Andrew Miller, Yorman Bazardo, Jair Juirjjens and Zach Miner!

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Dontrelle Willis had an ERA+ of 83

Durbin's was 97

Tata only pitched 14 innings

Miller (as a 21 year old rookie) was 81 era+

Bazardo only gave up 2 runs in the 11.2 innings he pitched as a starter

Jurjjens had an ERA+ of 97

Miner gave up 1 run in 5.1 innings in his only start

Seems to me that the Tigers would be better off by having a starter by comitttee than having Willis start instead of all of them




It actually kind of amazing that they finished 18th in era considering most of these players weren't even on their opening day roster!

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just like it would be kind of amazing if a team that finished 18th in ERA last year, and who's only addition to it was a pitcher who had an ERA+ lower than Mike Mussina and Mike Maroth can actually move up in the rankings

Not even to mention that Bonderman pitched much of the second half with a pinched nerve in his elbow

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not even to mention that Bonderman's pitched much of the 2nd half the same way he pitches much of the second half like most years- garbage

It wasn't the opposition, it was the fact that their pitching was decimated by injury!

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Yeo, the Yankees and Red Sox really got lucky avoiding the injury bug to their pitchers


In case you haven't noticed the trend in MLB is that The NL is fastly approaching the AL in offense.

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I haven't notice. It has nothing to do with the offenses closing the gap. It has to do with the fact that AL pitchers are much better overall. All you have to look at is interleague- the AL has demolished the NL the past 2 years. They hit better than the NL did, and they pitched better. The only reason the runs have slowed down is because the AL used to have years where Bartolo Colon can win the cy young, and now they have real aces like Beckett, Sabathia, bedard and Lackey gunning for it (although now that Haren and Santana switched leagues, it looks like the balance of pitching power is shifting to the NL)



Andrew Miller was the player traded to the Marlins. Andrew Miller was called up from AA last year. He wasn't even supposed to be with Tigers last season, injuries forced him up.He is not MLB ready. He has one pitch that is MLB caliber, the fastball. He cuts and changes speeds with it. He threw it over 90% of the time last year.

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and yet despite all that, his rookie season as a 21 year old was about statistically even to Willis' in his 5th or 6th season!!! (83 vs 81 ERA+)

My point was they were all still dominate. Yes becketts went way up but did you mention it went back down to 3.27  ...the second lowest of his career...thats down 1.74! 

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Wait, so a trio  of guys who had great seasons in the NL and then moved to the AL and still did well but not as good means that a pitcher who had a horrific season in the NLwill come to the AL and lower his era by a run?


Just like those guys still dominated, willis will still suck

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There is a site that did the stats of the last 50 pitchers the number was actually +or -  .13!!Not quite 1.50 but still a little fluctuation..

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Andrew Miller had an ERA+ of 81 on the Tigers last year and that was equivelant to a 5.63 era

Figuring in the fact that the Royals and  Twins have better offenses next year than they did last year (Indians and sox are pretty much the same as last year), my estimate would be that his Willis' 83 era+ would translate into a 5.70 era on the Tigers. Now he'll probably do better than that, but he would have to essentially lower what his era likely would've been by about a run and a half to become a better than average pitcher. That's not going to happen